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《货币的购买力》第六章第四节

时间:2017-12-27 17:44来源:未知 作者:一品梅 点击:
In any complete picture of the forces determining the purchasing power of money we need to keep prominently in view three groups of factors: (1) the production or the inflow of gold (i.e. from the mines); (2) the consumption or outflow (into
In any complete picture of the forces determining the purchasing power of money we need to keep prominently in view three groups of factors: (1) the production or the "inflow" of gold (i.e. from the mines); (2) the consumption or "outflow" (into the arts and by destruction and loss); and (3) the "stock" or reservoir of gold (whether coin or bullion) which receives the inflow and suffers the outflow. The relations among these three sets of magnitudes can be set forth by means of a mechanical illustration, given in Figure 5. This represents two connected reservoirs of liquid, Gb and Gm. The contents of the first reservoir represent the stock of gold bullion, and the contents of the second the stock of gold money. Since purchasing power increases with scarcity, the distance from the top of the cisterns, OO, to the surface of the liquid, is taken to represent the purchasing power of gold over other goods.
在决定货币购买力的力量的任何完整情况下,我们需要从以下三组因素中突出显示:(1)黄金的生产或“流入”(即来自矿山); (2)消费或“流出”(进入艺术,破坏和损失); (三)接受流入并流出的黄金(不论是硬币还是金条)的“库存”或水库。 这三组幅度之间的关系可以通过图5中给出的机械图示来表示。这表示两个相连的液体储库Gb和Gm。 第一个水库的内容代表金条的库存,第二个库的内容是黄金的库存。 由于购买力随着稀缺性的增加而增加,从水库顶端到液体表面的距离被用来代表黄金比其他商品的购买力。

A lowering of the level of the liquid indicates an increase in the purchasing power of money, since we measure this purchasing power downward from the line OO to the surface of the liquid. We shall not attempt to represent other forms of currency explicitly in the diagram. We have seen that normally the quantities of other currency are proportional to the quantity of primary money, which we are supposing to be gold. Therefore, the variation in the purchasing power of this primary money may be taken as representative of the variation of all the currency. We shall now explain the shapes of these cisterns. The shape of the cistern Gm must be such as will make the distance of the liquid surface below OO decrease with an increase of the liquid, in exactly the same way as the purchasing power of gold decreases with an increase in its quantity.
液体水平的下降表示货币购买力的增加,因为我们测量的是从OO线到液体表面的购买力。 我们不会试图在图表中明确表示其他形式的货币。 我们已经看到,通常其他货币的数量与主要货币的数量成正比,我们认为这些数量是黄金。 因此,这个基本货币的购买力的变化可以作为所有货币变化的代表。 现在我们将解释这些蓄水池的形状。 水箱的形状Gm必须使液面低于OO的距离随着液体的增加而减小,这与金的购买力随着其数量的增加而减少的方式完全相同。

That is, as the quantity of liquid in Gm doubles, the distance of the surface from the line OO should decrease by one half. In a similar manner the shape of the gold bullion cistern must be such as will make the distance of the liquid surface below OO decrease with an increase of the liquid in the same way as the value of gold bullion decreases with an increase of the stock of gold bullion. The shapes of the two cisterns need not, and ordinarily will not, be the same, for we can scarcely suppose that halving the purchasing power of gold will always exactly double the amount of bullion in existence.
也就是说,随着Gm中液体的数量增加一倍,表面距离线OO的距离应该减少一半。 以类似的方式,金条箱的形状必须使液面低于OO的距离随着液体的增加而减少,就像金条的价值随着库存的增加 金块。 两个水箱的形状不一定不一样,通常也不一样,因为我们几乎可以想象,将黄金的购买力减半将使现存黄金总量翻倍。

Both reservoirs have inlets and outlets. Let us consider these in connection with the bullion reservoir (Gb). Here each inlet represents a particular mine supplying bullion, and each outlet represents a particular use in the arts consuming gold bullion. Each mine and each use has its own distance from OO. There are, therefore, three sets of distances from OO: the inlet distances, the outlet distances, and the liquidsurface distance. Each inlet distance represents the cost of production for each mine, measured in goods; each outlet distance represents the value of gold in some particular use, likewise measured in goods. The surface distance, as we have already explained, represents the value of bullion, likewise measured in goods,—in other words, its purchasing power.
两个水库都有入口和出口。 让我们考虑这些与金库(Gb)有关的问题。 在这里,每个入口代表一个供应金块的特定矿井,而每个出口代表在消耗金块的艺术中的特定用途。 每个矿和每个使用与OO有自己的距离。 因此,与OO有三组距离:入口距离,出口距离和液面距离。 每个入口距离代表每个矿的生产成本,以货物计量; 每个出口距离代表某些特定用途的黄金价值,同样用商品来衡量。 正如我们已经解释的那样,表面距离代表了同样以商品衡量的黄金的价值,换句话说,它的购买力。

It is evident that among these three sets of levels there will be discrepancies. These discrepancies serve to interpret the relative state of things as between bullion and the various flows—in and out. If an inlet at a given moment be above the surface level, i.e. at a less distance from OO, the interpretation is that the cost of production is less than the purchasing power of the bullion. Hence the mine owner will turn on his spigot and keep it on until, perchance, the surface level rises to the level of his mine,—i.e. until the surface distance from OO is as small as the inlet distance,—i.e. until the purchasing power of bullion is as small as the cost of production. At this point there is no longer any profit in mining. So much for inlets; now let us consider the outlets. If an outlet at a given moment be below the surface level,—i.e. at a greater distance from OO,—the interpretation is that the value of gold in that particular use is greater than the purchasing power of bullion. Hence gold bullion will flow into these uses where its worth is greater than as bullion. That is, it will flow out of all outlets below the surface in the reservoir.
很明显,在这三个层次之间会有差异。这些差异有助于解释黄金和各种流入和流出之间的相对状态。如果给定时刻的入口高于表面水平,即与OO的距离较小,则解释是生产成本低于金条的购买力。因此,矿主将打开他的龙头,并保持这个水平,直到地面水平上升到他的矿井水平,即。直到距离OO的表面距离与入口距离一样小,即,直到金条的购买力和生产成本一样小。在这一点上,矿业不再有任何利润。入口非常多现在让我们考虑一下这些网点。如果给定时刻的插座低于表面水平,即,与OO的距离更远 - 解释是在这种特定用途下黄金的价值大于黄金的购买力。因此,金条将流入这些用途,其价值大于金条。也就是说,它将流出水库表面以下的所有出口。

It is evident, therefore, that at any given moment, only the inlets above the surface level, and only the outlets below it, will be called into operation. As the surface rises, therefore, more outlets will be brought into use, but fewer inlets. That is to say, the less the purchasing power of gold as bullion, the more it will be used in the arts, but the less profitable it will be for the mines to produce it, and the smaller will be the output of the mines. As the surface falls, more inlets will come into use and fewer outlets.
因此,很明显,在任何特定的时刻,只有在水平面之上的入口,并且只有在它之下的出口才会被调用。 因此,随着表面的上升,更多的出口将投入使用,但是入口更少。 也就是说,黄金作为金块的购买力越小,在艺术上用得越多,但是矿山生产的利润就越少,矿山的产量就越小。 随着地面的下降,更多的入口将投入使用和更少的出口。

We turn now to the money reservoir (Gm). The fact that gold has the same value either as bullion or as coin, because of the interflow between them, is interpreted in the diagram by connecting the bullion and coin reservoirs, in consequence of which both will (like water) have the same level. The surface of the liquid in both reservoirs will be the same distance below the line OO, and this distance represents the value of gold or its purchasing power. Should the inflow at any time exceed the outflow, the result will necessarily be an increase in the stock of gold in existence. This will tend to decrease the purchasing power or value of gold. But as soon as the surface rises, fewer inlets and more outlets will operate. That is, the excessive inflow or production on the one hand will decrease, and the deficient outflow or consumption on the other hand will increase, checking the inequality between the outflow and inflow. If, on the other hand, the outflow should temporarily be greater than the inflow, the reservoir will tend to subside. The purchasing power will increase; thus the excessive outflow will be checked, and the deficient inflow stimulated,—restoring equilibrium. The exact point of equilibrium may seldom or never be realized, but as in the case of a pendulum swinging back and forth through a position of equilibrium, there will always be a tendency to seek it.
我们现在转向金钱库(Gm)。由于黄金和硬币之间的交流,黄金具有与黄金或硬币相同的价值,因此在图表中通过连接黄金和硬币水库来解释,因此两者都将(如水)具有相同的水平。两个水库中的液体表面将与OO线下面的距离相同,这个距离代表黄金的价值或购买力。如果流入量随时超过流出量,那么结果必然是黄金存量的增加。这往往会降低黄金的购买力或价值。但是一旦表面上升,就会有更少的入口和更多的出口。也就是说,一方面过量的流入或产出会减少,另一方面流出量或消费量的不足会增加,从而检查流出和流入之间的不平等。另一方面,如果流出量暂时大于流入量,水库将趋于平息。购买力会增加;从而检查过度流出,流入不足刺激,回归均衡。平衡的确切点可能很少或永远不会被实现,但是如同钟摆在平衡位置来回摆动的情况一样,总会有一种倾向。

It need scarcely be said that our mechanical diagram is intended merely to give a picture of some of the chief variables involved in the problem under discussion. It does not of itself constitute an argument, or add any new element; nor should one pretend that it includes explicitly all the factors which need to be considered. But it does enable us to grasp the chief factors involved in determining the purchasing power of money. It enables us to observe and trace the following important variations and their effects:—
我们几乎不需要说我们的机械图只是为了说明正在讨论的问题中涉及的一些主要变量。 它本身并不构成一个论点,或者增加任何新的元素; 也不应该假装它明确地包括所有需要考虑的因素。 但它确实使我们能够把握确定货币购买力的主要因素。 它使我们能够观察和追踪以下重要的变化及其影响:

First, if there be an increased production of gold—due, let us suppose, to the discovery of new mines or improved methods of working old ones—this may be represented by an increase in the number or size of the inlets into the Gb reservoir. The result will evidently be an increase of "inflow" into the bullion reservoir, and from that into the currency reservoir, a consequent gradual filling up of both, and therefore a decrease in the purchasing power of money. This process will be checked finally by the increase in consumption. And when production and consumption become equal, an equilibrium will be established. An exhaustion of gold mines obviously operates in exactly the reverse manner.
首先,如果增加黄金产量,让我们假设,发现新的矿山或改进旧的工作方法 - 这可以通过增加进入Gb储层的入口的数量或尺寸来表示。 其结果显然是增加了对黄金水库的“流入”,并由此进入了货币储备,结果两者逐渐充盈,从而导致货币购买力下降。 这个过程最终将由消费增加来检查。 而当生产和消费相等时,就会建立均衡。 显然,金矿枯竭的情况恰恰相反。

Secondly, if there be an increase in the consumption of gold—as through some change of fashion—it may be represented by an increase in the number or size of the outlets of Gb. The result will be a draining out of the bullion reservoir, and consequently a decreased amount in the currency reservoir: hence an increase in the purchasing power of gold, which increase will be checked finally by an increase in the output of the mines as well as by a decrease in consumption. When the increased production and the decreased consumption become equal, equilibrium will again be reached.
其次,如果黄金的消费量有所增加(例如通过某种时尚的转变),那么Gb的出口数量或规模就会增加。 其结果将是黄金水库的流失,从而导致黄金水库的数量下降:因此黄金的购买力增加,最终将通过增加矿产的产量来加以检验。 减少消费。 当增加的产量和减少的消费量相等时,再次达到平衡。

If the connection between the currency reservoir and the bullion reservoir is closed by a valve, that is, if the mints are closed so that gold cannot flow from bullion into money (although it can flow in the reverse direction), then the purchasing power of the gold as money may become greater than its value as bullion. Any increase in the production of gold will then tend only to fill the bullion reservoir and decrease the distance of the surface from the line OO, i.e. lower the value of gold bullion. The surface of the liquid in the money reservoir will not be brought nearer OO. It may even by gradual loss be lowered farther away. In other words, the purchasing power of money will by such a valve be made entirely independent of the value of the bullion out of which it was first made.
如果通过一个阀关闭货币储存器和黄金储存器之间的连接,即如果薄荷糖被关闭以致黄金不能从黄金流入货币(虽然它可以反向流动),那么购买力 作为金钱的黄金可能会变得比金币的价值更大。 黄金产量的任何增加都只会导致黄金储备的增加,并减少表面距离OO的距离,即金条的价值降低。 货币流通池中的液体表面不会靠近OO。 甚至可能逐渐将损失逐渐降低。 换句话说,这样一个阀门的货币购买力将完全独立于最初制定的黄金的价值。

An illustration of this principle is found in the history of the silver currency in India. After long discussion the mints of India were closed to silver in 1893. Previous to that time the value of coined silver had followed closely the value of silver bullion, but the closure produced an immediate divergence between the two. The rupee has remained independent of silver ever since; and during the first six years—until 1899—it was independent of gold also. Its present relation to the latter metal will be discussed in the next chapter.
这一原则的一个例证是在印度的银币历史上发现的。 经过长时间的讨论,1893年印度的薄荷银币被关闭了。在此之前,造银的价值与银锭的价值密切相关,但是封闭造成了两者之间的直接分歧。 自那时以来,卢比一直保持独立。 直到1899年的前六年,也是独立于黄金的。 目前与后者的关系将在下一章讨论。

We have now discussed all but one of the outside influences upon the equation of exchange. That one is the character of the monetary and banking system which affects the quantity of money and deposits. This we reserve for special discussion in the following chapter. Meanwhile, it is also noteworthy that almost all of the influences affecting either the quantity or the velocities of circulation have been and are predominantly in the direction of higher prices. Almost the only opposing influence is the increased volume of trade; but this is partly neutralized by increased velocities due to the increased trade itself. We may here point out that some of those influences discussed in this and the preceding chapter operate in more than one way. Consider, for instance, technical knowledge and invention, which affect the equation of exchange by increasing trade. So far as these increase trade, the tendency is to decrease prices; but so far as they develop metallurgy and the other arts which increase the production and easy transportation of the precious metals, they tend to increase prices. So far as they make the transportation and transfer of money and deposits quicker, they also tend to increase prices. So far as they lead to the development of the art of banking, they likewise tend to increase prices, both by increasing deposit currency (M') and by increasing the velocity of circulation both of money and deposits. So far as they lead to the concentration of population in cities, they tend to increase prices by accelerating circulation.
现在我们已经讨论了除交换方程之外的所有外部因素之一。货币和银行体系的特点是影响货币和存款的数量。这个我们保留在下一章的特殊讨论。同时,值得注意的是,几乎所有影响流通量或流通速度的因素都是以价格上涨为主。几乎唯一相反的影响是贸易量的增加;但是由于交易本身的增加,速度的增加部分抵消了这一点。我们可以在这里指出,本章和前一章所讨论的那些影响中有一些是以不止一种方式运作的。例如,考虑技术知识和发明,通过增加贸易来影响交换的方程式。只要这些贸易增加,倾向就是降低价格;但只要发展冶金和其他增加贵金属的生产和便利运输的艺术,它们往往会提高价格。就他们加快货币运输和存款转移而言,也往往会抬高价格。就导致银行业的发展而言,它们同样倾向于通过增加存款货币(M')和增加货币和存款的流通速度来提高价格。就城市人口集中而言,它们往往通过加速流通来提高价格。

Finally, so far as per capita trade is increased through this or any other cause, there is a tendency to decrease prices. What the net effect of the development of the arts may be during any given period will depend on the predominant direction in which the arts are developed.
最后,通过这个或者任何其他原因,人均贸易增加了,价格就有下降的趋势。 在任何特定时期,艺术发展的净效果究竟取决于艺术发展的主要方向。 (责任编辑:一品梅)
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