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时间:2017-11-24 16:53来源:未知 作者:一品梅 点击:
5 The contraction of loans and deposits is accompanied by a decrease in velocities, and these conspire to prevent a further rise of prices and tend toward a fall. The crest of the wave is reached and a reaction sets in. Since prices have st
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The contraction of loans and deposits is accompanied by a decrease in velocities, and these conspire to prevent a further rise of prices and tend toward a fall. The crest of the wave is reached and a reaction sets in. Since prices have stopped rising, the rate of interest, which has risen to compensate the rise of prices, should fall again. But just as at first it was slow to rise, so now it is slow to fall. In fact, it tends for a time to rise still further.

The mistakes of the past of overborrowing compel the unfortunate victims of these mistakes to borrow still further to protect their solvency. It is this special abnormality which marks the period as a "crisis." Loans are wanted to continue old debts or to pay these debts by creating new ones. They are not wanted because of new investments but because of obligations connected with old (and ill-fated) investments. The problem is how to get extricated from the meshes of past commitments. It is the problem of liquidation. Even when interest begins to fall, it falls slowly, and failures continue to occur. Borrowers now find that interest, though nominally low, is still hard to meet. Especially do they find this true in the case of contracts made just before prices ceased rising or just before they began to fall. The rate of interest in these cases is agreed upon before the change in conditions takes place. There will, in consequence, be little if any adjustment in lowering nominal interest. Because interest is hard to pay, failures continue to occur. There comes to be a greater hesitation in lending on any but the best security, and a hesitation to borrow save when the prospects of success are the greatest. Bank loans tend to be low, and consequently deposits (M') are reduced. The contraction of deposit currency makes prices fall still more. Those who have borrowed for the purpose of buying stocks of goods now find they cannot sell them for enough even to pay back what they have borrowed. Owing to this tardiness of the interest rate in falling to a lower and a normal level, the sequence of events is now the opposite of what it was before:

1. Prices fall.
2. The rate of interest falls, but not sufficiently.
3. Enterpriser-borrowers, discouraged by small profits, contract their borrowings.
4. Deposit currency (M') contracts relatively to money (M).
5. Prices continue to fall; that is, phenomenon No. 1 is repeated. Then No. 2 is repeated, and so on.
4.存入货币(M')相对于货币(M)的合约。 价格继续下跌 即重复1号现象。然后重复2,依此类推。

Thus a fall of prices generates a further fall of prices. The cycle evidently repeats itself as long as the rate of interest lags behind. The man who loses most is the business man in debt. He is the typical business man, and he now complains that "business is bad." There is a "depression of trade."
During this depression, velocities (V and V') are abnormally low. People are less hasty to spend money or checks when the dollars they represent are rising in purchasing power. The Q's (or quantities in trade) decline because (1) the initiators of trade—the enterpriser-borrowers—are discouraged; (2) the inertia of high prices can be overcome only by a falling off of expenditures; (3) trade against money which alone the Q's represent gives way somewhat to barter. For a time there is not enough money to do the business which has to be done at existing prices, for these prices are still high and will not immediately adjust themselves to the sudden contraction. When such a "money famine" exists, there is no way of doing all the business except by eking out money transactions with barter. But while recourse to barter eases the first fall of prices, the inconvenience of barter immediately begins to operate as an additional force tending to reduce prices by inducing sellers to sell at a sacrifice if only money can be secured and barter avoided; although this effect is partly neutralized for a time by a decrease in the amount of business which people will attempt under such adverse conditions. A statement including these factors is:
因此,价格的下降导致价格进一步下跌。只要利率滞后,这个循环显然会重演。失去最多的人是负债的商人。他是典型的商人,现在他抱怨说“生意不好”。有一个“贸易萧条”。 在这个压低期间,速度(V和V')异常地低。当他们所代表的美元在购买力上升的时候,人们就不那么匆忙地花钱或检查。Q(或交易量)下降是因为(1)贸易发起者 - 企业家 - 借款者 - 不鼓励; (2)高价格的惯性只能通过支出的下降来克服; (3)单单Q代表的货币对易货交易有一定的交易。一段时间没有足够的资金来做生意,必须以现有价格来完成,因为这些价格仍然很高,不会立即适应突然收缩。当这样的“钱荒”存在的时候,除了用易货交易进行货币交易外,没有办法做所有的事情。但是,在追求易货价格的同时,易货价格首次下滑,易货贸易的不便,立即开始作为一种附加力量,以降低价格为目标,诱使卖家牺牲卖点,只要货币得到保证和交换,虽然这个效果是部分的 在这样的不利条件下,人们会尝试减少业务量,从而中和一段时间。包括这些因素的声明是:

1. Prices fall.
2. Velocities of circulation (V and V') fall; the rate of interest falls, but not sufficiently.
3. Profits decrease; loans and the Q's decrease.
4. Deposit currency (M') contracts relatively to money (M).
2.流通速度(V和V')下降; 利率下降,但不够。
3.利润下降; 贷款和Q的减少。

Prices continue to fall; that is, phenomenon No. 1 is repeated. Then No. 2 is repeated, and so on.
价格继续下跌; 即重复1号现象。然后重复2,依此类推。

The contraction brought about by this cycle of causes becomes self-limiting as soon as the rate of interest overtakes the rate of fall in prices. After a time, normal conditions begin to return. The weakest producers have been forced out, or have at least been prevented from expanding their business by increased loans. The strongest firms are left to build up a new credit structure. The continuous fall of prices has made it impossible for most borrowers to pay the old high rates of interest; the demand for loans diminishes, and interest falls to a point such that borrowers can at last pay it. Borrowers again become willing to take ventures; failures decrease in number; bank loans cease to decrease; prices cease to fall; borrowing and carrying on business become profitable; loans are again demanded; prices again begin to rise, and there occurs a repetition of the upward movement already described.
一旦利率超过了价格下跌的速度,这种循环的原因所带来的收缩就会自我限制。一段时间后,正常情况开始返回。最弱的生产者被迫退出,或者至少被阻止通过增加贷款来扩大业务。最强大的企业留下来建立一个新的信贷结构。价格的不断下跌使得大多数借款人无法支付旧的高利率。对贷款的需求减少,利息下降到可以让借款人最终支付的时间。借款人再次愿意冒险; 失败次数减少; 银行贷款不再减少; 价格停止下跌; 借贷和经营变得有利可图; 再次要求贷款; 价格再次开始上涨,

We have considered the rise, culmination, fall, and recovery of prices. These changes are abnormal oscillations, due to some initial disturbance. The upward and downward movements taken together constitute a complete credit cycle, which resembles the forward and backward movements of a pendulum.50 In most cases the time occupied by the swing of the commercial pendulum to and fro is about ten years. While the pendulum is continually seeking a stable position, practically there is almost always some occurrence to prevent perfect equilibrium. Oscillations are set up which, though tending to be self-corrective, are continually perpetuated by fresh disturbances. Any cause which disturbs equilibrium will suffice to set up oscillations. One of the most common of such causes is an increase in the quantity of money.51 Another is a shock to business confidence (affecting enterprise, loans, and deposits). A third is short crops, affecting the Q's. A fourth is invention.

The factors in the equation of exchange are therefore continually seeking normal adjustment. A ship in a calm sea will "pitch" only a few times before coming to rest, but in a high sea the pitching never ceases. While continually seeking equilibrium, the ship continually encounters causes which accentuate the oscillation. The factors seeking mutual adjustment are money in circulation, deposits, their velocities, the Q's and the p's. These magnitudes must always be linked together by the equation MV + M'V' = SpQ. This represents the mechanism of exchange. But in order to conform to such a relation the displacement of any one part of the mechanism spreads its effects during the transition period over all parts. Since periods of transition are the rule and those of equilibrium the exception, the mechanism of exchange is almost always in a dynamic rather than a static condition.
因此交换方程中的因素不断地寻求正常的调整。一艘平静的大海中的船只在休息之前只会“吱吱”几声,但是在高处海域中,俯仰的声音从未停止过。在不断寻求平衡的同时,船不断遇到振荡加剧的原因。寻求相互调整的因素是流通中的货币,存款,速度,Q和P。这些量值必须总是通过等式MV + M'V'= SpQ连接在一起。这代表了交换的机制。但为了符合这样的关系,机制的任何一个部分的位移在过渡期间在所有部分上扩散。由于转型期是规则,平衡型是例外,

It must not be assumed that every credit cycle is so marked as to produce artificially excessive business activity at one time and "hard times" at another. The rhythm may be more or less extreme in the width of its fluctuations. If banks are conservative in making loans during the periods of rising prices, and the expansion of credit currency is therefore limited, the rise of prices is likewise limited, and the succeeding fall is apt to be less and to take place more gradually. If there were a better appreciation of the meaning of changes in the price level and an endeavor to balance these changes by adjustment in the rate of interest, the oscillations might be very greatly mitigated. It is the lagging behind of the rate of interest which allows the oscillations to reach so great proportions. On this point Marshall well says: "The cause of alternating periods of inflation and depression of commercial activity... is intimately connected with those variations in the real rate of interest which are caused by changes in the purchasing power of money. For when prices are likely to rise, people rush to borrow money and buy goods, and thus help prices to rise; business is inflated, and is managed recklessly and wastefully; those working on borrowed capital pay back less real value than they borrowed, and enrich themselves at the expense of the community. When afterwards credit is shaken and prices begin to fall, every one wants to get rid of commodities which are falling in value and to get hold of money which is rapidly rising; this makes prices fall all the faster, and the further fall makes credit shrink even more, and thus for a long time prices fall because prices have fallen."52
不能认为每一个信贷周期都如此明显,以至于一次造成人为过度的商业活动,另一方面造成“困难时期”。节奏在波动的幅度上可能或多或少是极端的。如果银行在价格上涨期间保守放款,信用货币扩张受到限制,价格的上涨也是有限的,而下降幅度往往较小,而且逐渐发生。如果对价格水平变化的含义有更好的认识,并试图通过调整利率来平衡这些变化,则可能会大大缓解这种波动。利率的落后使振荡达到如此高的比例。在这一点上,马歇尔说:“ 通货膨胀和商业活动萧条交替出现的原因......与货币购买力变化引起的实际利率变化密切相关。因为当价格上涨时,人们会急于借钱买货,从而帮助价格上涨。业务膨胀,肆意管理和浪费; 那些从事借来的资本的工作,比他们借来的还要少一些真正的价值,而且是以牺牲社会为代价的。当信贷动摇,价格开始下跌时,每个人都想摆脱掉价值大的商品,拿到迅速崛起的货币; 这使得房价下跌的速度更快,而进一步的下跌使得信贷更加萎缩,

A somewhat different sort of cycle is the seasonal fluctuation which occurs annually. Such fluctuations, for the most part, are due, not to the departure from a state of equilibrium, but rather to a continuous adjustment to conditions, which, though changing, are normal and expected. As the autumn periods of harvesting and crop moving approach, there is a tendency toward a lower level of prices, followed after the passing of this period and the approach of winter by a rise of prices.
一个稍微不同的周期是每年发生的季节性波动。这种波动大部分是由于不是偏离了平衡状态,而是由于条件的不断调整,虽然这种情况有所改变,但这种情况是正常的和预期的。随着收获和作物播种的秋季时期,价格有下降的趋势,随着时间的推移和价格的上涨冬季临近。 (责任编辑:一品梅)
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