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《货币的购买力》第四章第四节

时间:2017-11-21 18:25来源:未知 作者:一品梅 点击:
4 Evidently the expansion coming from this cycle of causes cannot proceed forever. It must ultimately spend itself. The check upon its continued operation lies in the rate of interest. It was the tardiness of the rise in interest that was r
§ 4
Evidently the expansion coming from this cycle of causes cannot proceed forever. It must ultimately spend itself. The check upon its continued operation lies in the rate of interest. It was the tardiness of the rise in interest that was responsible for the abnormal condition. But the rise in interest, though belated, is progressive, and, as soon as it overtakes the rate of rise in prices, the whole situation is changed. If prices are rising at the rate of 2 per cent per annum, the boom will continue only until interest becomes 2 per cent higher. It then offsets the rate of rise in prices. The banks are forced in self-defense to raise interest because they cannot stand so abnormal an expansion of loans relatively to reserves. As soon as the interest rate becomes adjusted, borrowers can no longer hope to make great profits, and the demand for loans ceases to expand.
很显然,这个循环的原因不能一直持续下去。它最终必须花费自己。对持续经营的检查在于利率。造成这种不正常情况的兴趣上升迟缓了。但是,兴趣上升虽然迟了,却是渐进式的,一旦超过了物价上涨的速度,整个情况就改变了。如果价格以每年2%的速度上涨,经济繁荣将继续下去,直到利息上涨2%。它抵消了价格上涨的速度。银行被迫进行自卫来提高利息,因为他们不能够忍受贷款相对于储备的扩张。一旦利率调整后,借款人不能再希望赚大钱,

There are also other forces placing a limitation on further expansion of deposit currency and introducing a tendency to contraction. Not only is the amount of deposit currency limited both by law and by prudence to a certain maximum multiple of the amount of bank reserves; but bank reserves are themselves limited by the amount of money available for use as reserves. Further, with the rise of interest, the value of certain collateral securities, such as bonds, on the basis of which loans are made, begins to fall. Such securities, being worth the discounted value of fixed sums, fall as interest rises; and therefore they cannot be used as collateral for loans as large as before. This check to loans is, as previously explained, a check to deposits also.
还有其他力量限制了存款货币的进一步扩张,并出现收缩的趋势。存款货币的数量不仅受到法律和审慎的限制,达到了银行准备金数额的某个最大倍数; 但银行储备本身受限于可用作储备金的金额。此外,随着利息的上升,债券等某些抵押证券的价值在此基础上开始下降。这样的证券,由于利息上升,所以价值为固定金额的折扣。因此不能用作以前的贷款抵押品。如前所述,贷款支票也是存款支票。

With the rise of interest, those who have counted on renewing their loans at the former rates and for the former amounts are unable to do so. It follows that some of them are destined to fail. The failure (or prospect of failure) of firms that have borrowed heavily from banks induces fear on the part of many depositors that the banks will not be able to realize on these loans. Hence the banks themselves fall under suspicion, and for this reason depositors demand cash. Then occur "runs on the banks," which deplete the bank reserves at the very moment they are most needed.47 Being short of reserves, the banks have to curtail their loans. It is then that the rate of interest rises to a panic figure. Those enterprisers who are caught must have currency48 to liquidate their obligations, and to get it are willing to pay high interest. Some of them are destined to become bankrupt, and, with their failure, the demand for loans is correspondingly reduced. This culmination of an upward price movement is what is called a crisis,49 —a condition characterized by bankruptcies, and the bankruptcies being due to a lack of cash when it is most needed.
随着利息的上升,那些已经指望以前利率和前期利率更新贷款的人是无法这样做的。因此,有些人注定要失败。从银行大量借款的公司的失败(或失败的前景)引起了许多存款人的担心,即银行无法实现这些贷款。因此,银行本身受到怀疑,因此存款人需要现金。然后就会发生“银行挤兑”,银行储备在最需要的时候就会消耗殆尽.47由于缺乏储备,银行不得不减少贷款。那就是利率上升到一个恐慌的数字。那些被抓的企业家必须有货币来平息债务,并且愿意支付高利息。他们中的一些人注定要破产,而他们的失败则相应地减少了对贷款的需求。这种价格上涨的高潮就是所谓的危机,这是一种以破产为特征的状况,而破产是由于最需要的时候缺少现金造成的。

It is generally recognized that the collapse of bank credit brought about by loss of confidence is the essential fact of every crisis, be the cause of the loss of confidence what it may. What is not generally recognized, and what it is desired in this chapter to emphasize, is that this loss of confidence (in the typical commercial crisis here described) is a consequence of a belated adjustment in the interest rate.
人们普遍认识到,由于信心丧失而导致的银行信贷崩溃,是每一次危机的根本性事实,成为失去信心的原因。什么是不公认的,本章要强调的是,这种信心的丧失(在这里描述的典型的商业危机中)是利率迟缓调整的结果。

It is not our purpose here to discuss nonmonetary causes of crises, further than to say that the monetary causes are the most important when taken in connection with the maladjustments in the rate of interest. The other factors often emphasized are merely effects of this maladjustment. "Overconsumption" and "over-investment" are cases in point. The reason many people spend more than they can afford is that they are relying on the dollar as a stable unit when as a matter of fact its purchasing power is rapidly falling. The bond-holder, for instance, is beguiled into trenching on his capital. He never dreams that he ought to lay by a sinking fund because the decrease in purchasing power of money is reducing the real value of his principal. Again, the stockholder and enterpriser generally are beguiled by a vain reliance on the stability of the rate of interest, and so they overinvest. It is true that for a time they are gaining what the bondholder is losing and are therefore justified in both spending and investing more than if prices were not rising; and at first they prosper. But sooner or later the rate of interest rises above what they had reckoned on, and they awake to the fact that they have embarked on enterprises which cannot pay these high rates.
在这里讨论非货币性危机的原因并不是我们的目的,更重要的是货币原因在与利率失调有关的时候是最重要的。常常强调的其他因素仅仅是这种失调的影响。“过度消费”和“过度投资”就是一例。许多人花费超过他们能负担的原因是他们依靠美元作为一个稳定的单位,事实上它的购买力正在迅速下降。举例来说,债券持有人被卷入了他的首都。他从来没有想过,他应该通过偿债基金来裁员,因为货币购买力的下降正在降低其本金的实际价值。再次,确实,一段时间以来,他们正在获得债券持有者正在流失的东西,因此在价格上涨的情况下,在支出和投资方面都是合理的; 起初他们繁荣。但是,利息率迟早会超过他们所预期的,而他们已经走上了不能支付这么高的利息的企业。

Then a curious thing happens: borrowers, unable to get easy loans, blame the high rate of interest for conditions which were really due to the fact that the previous rate of interest was not high enough. Had the previous rate been high enough, the borrowers never would have overinvested.
于是,一件奇怪的事情发生了:借款人无法获得轻松的贷款,把这种高利率归咎于事实上以前的利率还不够高。如果以前的利率足够高,借款人永远不会过度投资。 (责任编辑:一品梅)
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