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《货币的购买力》第四章第一节

时间:2017-11-16 18:34来源:未知 作者:一品梅 点击:
DISTURBANCE OF EQUATION AND OF PURCHASING POWER DURING TRANSITION PERIODS 过渡期公式与购买力的干扰 1 IN the last chapter it was shown that the quantity of bank deposits normally maintains a definite ratio to the quantity of money
DISTURBANCE OF EQUATION AND OF PURCHASING POWER DURING TRANSITION PERIODS
过渡期公式与购买力的干扰
§ 1
IN the last chapter it was shown that the quantity of bank deposits normally maintains a definite ratio to the quantity of money in circulation and to the amount of bank reserves. As long as this normal relation holds, the existence of bank deposits merely magnifies the effect on the level of prices produced by the quantity of money in circulation and does not in the least distort that effect. Moreover, changes in velocity or trade will have the same effect on prices, whether bank deposits are included or not.
在上一章中,表明银行存款的数量通常与流通中的货币数量和银行的数量保持一定比例储备。只要这种正常关系成立,银行存款的存在只会扩大对流通货币产生的价格水平的影响,并不能扭曲这种影响。此外,无论是否包含银行存款,速度或交易的变化都会对价格产生同样的影响。

But during periods of transition this relation between money (M) and deposits (M') is by no means rigid.
但在过渡期间,货币(M)和存款(M')之间的这种关系决不是硬性的。

We are now ready to study these periods of transition. The change which constitutes a transition may be a change in the quantity of money, or in any other factor of the equation of exchange, or in all. Usually all are involved, but the chief factor which we shall select for study (together with its effect on the other factors) is quantity of money. If the quantity of money were suddenly doubled, the effect of the change would not be the same at first as later. The ultimate effect is, as we have seen, to double prices; but before this happens, the prices oscillate up and down. In this chapter we shall consider the temporary effects during the period of transition separately from the permanent or ultimate effects which were considered in the last chapter. These permanent or ultimate effects follow after a new equilibrium is established,—if, indeed, such a condition as equilibrium may be said ever to be established. What we are concerned with in this chapter is the temporary effects, i.e. those in the transition period.
我们现在准备研究这些过渡时期。构成转变的变化可能是货币数量的变化,也可能是交换方程的其他任何因素的变化。通常都涉及到,但我们选择研究的主要因素(连同其对其他因素的影响)是金钱的数量。如果货币数量突然增加一倍,那么变化的影响起初不会一样。正如我们所看到的,最终的结果是使价格翻番; 但在此之前,价格会上下波动。在本章中,我们将考虑过渡时期的暂时效应,而不是上一章所考虑的永久效应或最终效应。这些永久或终极的影响是在一个新的均衡建立之后进行的。事实上,可以说平衡这样一个条件可以被证实。本章我们所关心的是临时性的影响,也就是过渡期的影响。

The transition periods may be characterized either by rising prices or by falling prices.
过渡时期的特点可能是价格上涨或价格下跌。

Rising prices must be clearly distinguished from high prices, and falling from low. With stationary levels, high or low, we have in this chapter nothing to do. Our concern is with rising or falling prices. Rising prices mark the transition between a low and a high level of prices, just as a hill marks the transition between flat lowlands and flat highlands.
价格上涨必须明确区分高价位和低位。高低不变的水平,我们在这一章中没有什么可做的。我们担心的是价格上涨或下跌。价格上涨标志着低价格和高价格之间的转变,正如一座山丘标志着低地和高地之间的过渡。

Since the study of these acclivities and declivities is bound up with that of the adjustment of interest rates, our first task is to present a brief statement regarding the effects of rising and falling prices39 on the rate of interest. Indeed, the chief object of this chapter is to show that the peculiar behavior of the rate of interest during transition periods is largely responsible for the crises and depressions in which price movements end.
由于对这些适应性和衰退性的研究与利率调整密切相关,所以我们的首要任务就是提出一个关于价格上涨和下降对利率影响的简要说明。实际上,本章的主要目的是要表明,过渡时期利率特有的行为主要是价格运动结束的危机和萧条的原因。

It must be borne in mind that although business loans are made in the form of money, yet whenever a man borrows money, he does not do this in order to hoard the money, but to purchase goods with it. To all intents and purposes, therefore, when A borrows one hundred dollars from B in order to purchase, say, one hundred units of a given commodity at one dollar per unit, it may be said that B is virtually lending A one hundred units of that commodity. And if at the end of a year A returns one hundred dollars to B, but the price of the commodity has meanwhile advanced, then B has lost a fraction of the purchasing power originally loaned to A. For even though A should happen to return to B the identical coins in which the loan was made, these coins represent somewhat less than the original quantity of purchasable commodities. Bearing this in mind in our investigation of interest rates, let us suppose that prices are rising at the rate of 3 per cent each year. It is plain that the man who lends $100 at the beginning of the year must, in order to get 5 per cent interest in purchasing power, receive back both $103 (then the equivalent of the $100 lent) plus 5 per cent of this, or a total of $108.15. That is, in order to get 5 per cent interest in actual purchasing power, he must receive a little more than 8 per cent interest in money. The 3 per cent rise of prices thus ought to add approximately 3 per cent to the rate of interest. Rising prices, therefore, in order that the relations between creditor and debtor shall be the same during the rise as before and after, require higher money interest than stationary prices require.
必须记住,虽然商业贷款​​是以金钱的形式出现的,但是当一个人借钱时,他并不是为了囤积钱而是用这笔钱来购买货物。因此,为了所有的意图和目的,当A从B那里借了一百美元来购买一个单位的一百美元的某一商品时,可以说B实际上是放贷了一百那个商品。而如果在一年年底,A向B返还一百美元,但是商品的价格已经同时提前了,那么B已经失去了原来借给A的购买力的一小部分。即使A应该返回到B是贷款所用的相同的硬币,这些硬币比可购买商品的原始数量略低。在我们调查利率时考虑到这一点,让我们假设价格每年上涨3%。很显然,在年初借给100美元的人,为了得到5%的购买权,必须收回103美元(相当于借出的100美元)再加上5%,或者总共$ 108.15。也就是说,为了获得实际购买力的5%的利益,他必须获得超过8%的利息。因此,价格上涨3%应该使利率增加大约3%。因此,价格上涨,为了使债权人和债务人之间的关系在上升前后保持一致,需要比固定价格要求更高的货币利息。

Not only will lenders require, but borrowers can afford to pay higher interest in terms of money; and to some extent competition will gradually force them to do so.40 Yet we are so accustomed in our business dealings to consider money as the one thing stable,—to think of a "dollar as a dollar" regardless of the passage of time, that we reluctantly yield to this process of readjustment, thus rendering it very slow and imperfect. When prices are rising at the rate of 3 per cent a year, and the normal rate of interest—i.e. the rate which would exist were prices stationary—is 5 per cent, the actual rate, though it ought (in order to make up for the rising prices) to be 8.15 per cent, will not ordinarily reach that figure; but it may reach, say, 6 per cent, and later, 7 per cent. This inadequacy and tardiness of adjustment are fostered, moreover, by law and custom, which arbitrarily tend to keep down the rate of interest.
贷款人不但要求,而且借款人可以支付更高的金钱利息; 在一定程度上,竞争将逐渐迫使他们这样做。[40]然而,我们在商业交易中习以为常,认为货币是一个稳定的东西,不管时间的推移,都把“美元当作美元”我们不情愿地屈服于这个调整的过程,因此使得这个过程非常缓慢和不完善。当价格以每年3%的速度上升时,正常的利率(即存在的价格是固定价格)为5%,但实际利率虽然应该(为了弥补价格上涨)为8.15%,通常不会达到这个数字; 但可能达到6%,后来达到7%。促进这种调整的不足和拖延,

A similar inadequacy of adjustment is observed when prices are falling. Suppose that, by the end of a year, $97 will buy as much as $100 at the beginning. In that case the lender, in order to get back a purchasing power equivalent to his principal and 5 per cent interest, should get, not $105, but only $97 + 5 per cent of $97 or $101.85. Thus the rate of interest in money should in this case be 1.85 per cent, or less than 2 per cent, instead of the original 5 per cent. In other words, the 3 per cent fall of prices should reduce the rate of interest by approximately 3 per cent. But as a matter of fact, such a perfect adjustment is seldom reached, and money interest keeps far above 2 per cent for a considerable time.41
当价格下跌时,也会出现类似的调整不足。假设到一年年底,97美元起初将会多达100美元。在这种情况下,为了获得相当于本金和5%利息的购买力,贷方应该得到的不是105美元,而是97美元+97美元的5%或101.85美元。因此,在这种情况下,货币利息率应该是百分之一点八五,而不是原来的百分之五,而不是百分之二。换句话说,价格下跌3%,应该把利率降低大约3%。但事实上,这样一个完美的调整是很少达到的,在相当长的一段时间内,金钱利益远远高于2%.41 (责任编辑:一品梅)
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